Hospital(s): Royal Papworth Hospital NHS FT
Special Interests: Adult Cardiac Surgery
John Dunning was schooled in Edinburgh at George Watson’s College, and attended University in St Andrew’s and Manchester, qualifying BSc in 1981 and MB, ChB in 1984. Subsequently his general surgical training took place in Manchester and Leicester, with specialist Cardiothoracic training in Groby Road Hospital, Leicester, Papworth Hospital, Cambridgeshire, and The John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford.
Mr Dunning was appointed to a Consultant Surgeon’s position at Papworth in 1994, and subsequently spent nearly four years as Clinical Director of the Cardiothoracic Surgical unit at The Prince Charles Hospital, Brisbane, before returning to Papworth in September 2007, where he is now the Clinical Director of Surgery.
His practice includes all areas of adult cardiothoracic surgery, with major interests in surgery of the thoracic aorta including aortic root and Ross procedures, grown up congenital surgery (GUCH), re-operative and complex surgery, heart failure surgery and cardiopulmonary transplantation, mechanical circulatory support, and pulmonary endarterectomy.
He is an examiner for the Intercollegiate Fellowship Examination in Cardiothoracic Surgery and has contributed to the training of many international fellows who are now in leading positions in their own countries.
Major research interests include device innovations, clinical outcomes analysis and a number of transplant related areas. He is an active reviewer for several Professional publications.
Risk-adjusted in-hospital survival rate
This graph shows the “in hospital” survival rate of patients who are operated on by the individual surgeon/unit you have selected. “In hospital” means time the patient is in the hospital where they have had their operation. It does not include any time that patients may have spent in other hospitals, either before or after their heart operation.
The data has been through a complex methodology, including the variations in patient risk factors in order to give you a comparative base from which to work from. This means that the survival rates take into account the type and risk of patients being operated on for each surgeon/unit. This is known as risk adjusted survival.
The vertical axis shows the GMC number of the surgeon or the Hospital identifier. In brackets is the total number of patients operated on by the surgeon/unit and the percentage of patients for whom the survival is known. The horizontal axis is the percentage survival. The dashed vertical line shows the risk adjusted survival rate for the UK as a whole. The solid black horizontal line represents the surgeon/unit. What is important here is that the horizontal line crosses the vertical dashed line. If this occurs, it means that the surgeon/unit are within the expected outcomes given the case-mix and risk factors of the patients they operate on.
The icons that sit on the horizontal line should give you more information about your surgeon/team.
The open square is the survival rate with no risk adjustments:
The X is the predicted survival with adjustments
The solid dot is the survival probability after the methodology has been applied.
- If the solid dot is red it means survival is worse than expected
- If the solid dot is black it means that it is within limits
- If the solid dot is green it means that there is significantly higher survival than expected
There is a lot of information on these plots, but the takeaway message is that if the solid black line crosses the dashed vertical line then the survival rate for the surgeon/unit is within expectations and that there is no reason for any concern.
A more detailed explanation about these graphs and methodology can be found here: Graph Explanations